::edit:: Well, so far I was wrong with KY. Clinton more than won by the odds I predicted. I also recognize that my math was slightly off. Perhaps the Democratic delegate allocation is more complicated than I thought...We'll see how the rest of the night goes soon...
Today could be make-or-break day for Hilary Clinton. She is clearly behind in the delegate race, due to the sharp swing of super delegates to Barack Obama over the past couple of weeks. In fact, she’s gone from up about 20 a couple of weeks ago, to now being down 25.
But she is currently flying high in Kentucky, whose primary election is today. Her Real Clear Politics average puts her up 29 points, with other recent polls ranging from +25 to +36% above Obama.
Kentucky is a 51-delegate state, and it is a closed primary. Sorry those of you trying to participate in Rush Limbaugh’s Operation: Chaos, but you can’t swing this one even more in Clinton’s favor. I predict that Clinton will win with 26.4% of the vote, giving her approximately 37 of the delegates from the state, to Obama’s 14.
On the other hand, Oregon is also having its primary vote today, and Clinton is kind of floundering there. Over the past 10 days, Oregon's Real Clear Politics average puts Obama up +12%, with a spread from +5 to +20% above Clinton.
Oregon, likewise, is a closed primary, with 52 delegates up for grabs. Obama will definitely win this primary, and I predict it will be by 9.4%. This gives him 32 delegates, to Clinton’s 21.
At the end of the day, this gives Clinton a net gain of 58 delegates and Obama a gain of 46. Even if my percentages are a few points off, these numbers won’t change by more than 4 or 5 in either direction, I’m sure.
This puts Obama at 1656 pledged delegates, and Clinton at 1501.
Apparently, Obama is ready to announce that he has the majority of pledged delegates. And Clinton is claiming that she is winning in the popular vote.
They will continue to fight. She won’t back down, even in the face of ever-increasing odds.
So, as John McCain said, “That’s right. Fight amongst yourselves.”
I'm good with that.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comments:
Wow, how insightful of you. You almost got it right! Keep trying! Oh boy, someday you can be a real political analyst! Just think, if the country survives you can keep making predictions about it!
Post a Comment